2023年全球低碳能源投资将达到6200亿美元

中国石化新闻网讯 据油价网1月12日消息称，挪威研究机构Rystad Energy的研究显示，今年在低碳项目上的支出将增加600亿美元，比2022年高出10%，主要是风力开发，但氢和碳捕获、利用和存储(CCUS)基础设施的资金大幅增加。总支出的增长比近年来有所放缓——平均每年增长20%——因为成本意识强的开发商在经历了两年的房价飙升后收紧了钱袋。

2022年，绿色行业的投资激增21%，首次超过相关的石油和天然气支出，但受通胀影响的开发商似乎将在今年遏制支出增长。然而，随着通胀压力减弱，我们预计支出将反弹。

地热、碳捕获、利用和储存(CCUS)、氢、水电、海上和陆上风能、核能和太阳能行业的投资将在2023年达到6200亿美元，高于去年的约5600亿美元。我们计算的服务领域包括项目设备和材料、工程和施工、油井、运营和维护、物流和船舶。

太阳能和陆上风能将贡献最大。今年太阳能投资支出总额将达到2500亿美元，比2022年仅增长6%。然而，由于太阳能光伏电池的主要成本驱动因素多晶硅的成本下降，产能增长将比美元投资所显示的更为可观。尽管投资价值增长相对不明显，但装机容量预计将增长约25%，达到1250吉瓦。

各行各业的支出增长差异很大。预计氢能和CCUS的年增长率最高，分别增长149%和136%。到2023年，氢能总支出将接近78亿美元，而CCUS投资总额将约为74亿美元。

相比之下，水电市场预计将在2022年萎缩，而核电投资预计将保持相对平稳。陆上风电投资预计将增长12%，达到约2300亿美元，而海上风电支出预计将增长20%至480亿美元。地热方面的支出预计将大幅增长(约45%)，尽管起点相对较低。

曹海斌 摘译自 油价网

原文如下：

Investment In Low-Carbon Energy To Hit $620 Billion This Year

Spending on low-carbon projects will increase by $60 billion this year, 10% higher than 2022, led by wind developments but helped by a significant rise in funding for hydrogen and carbon capture, utilization and storage (CCUS) infrastructure, Rystad Energy research shows. The growth in total spending is a slowdown from recent years – which averaged 20% annual increases – as cost-conscious developers tighten their purse strings after two years of soaring prices.

Investments in green sectors surged 21% in 2022 to overtake related oil and gas spending for the first time, but inflation-spooked developers seem set to rein in spending growth this year. However, as inflationary pressure weakens, we expect spending to rebound.

Investments in the geothermal, carbon capture, utilization and storage (CCUS), hydrogen, hydropower, offshore and onshore wind, nuclear and solar industries are set to hit $620 billion in 2023, up from about $560 billion last year. Service segments included in our calculations include project equipment and materials, engineering and construction, wells, operations and maintenance, and logistics and vessels.

Solar and onshore wind will contribute the most by a sizable margin. Spending on solar investments will total $250 billion this year, rising only 6% over 2022. However, thanks to the falling cost of polysilicon, the primary cost driver of solar PV cells, capacity growth will be more substantial than dollar investments suggest. Despite a relatively insignificant rise in investment value, installed capacity is expected to swell by roughly 25% to 1,250 gigawatts (GW).

Spending growth will vary widely across industries. Hydrogen and CCUS are expected to see the most significant annual increase, growing 149% and 136%, respectively. Total hydrogen spending will approach $7.8 billion in 2023, while CCUS investments will total about $7.4 billion.

In contrast, the hydropower market is expected to shrink over 2022, while nuclear investments are forecast to stay relatively flat. onshore wind investments are projected to increase by 12% to about $230 billion, while offshore wind spending is expected to jump 20% to $48 billion. Expenditure in geothermal is expected to jump significantly – about 45% – albeit from a relatively low starting position.