2011年四季度中国二级组件制造商产能跌至35%

Ne21.com 据IMS最新的季度报告显示：中国二级晶硅组件厂商在2011年四季度的产能利用率降到了35%，甚至预计将在2012年一季度降到最低。由于库存过剩和2012年疲软的需求前景，很多厂商关闭了部分生产线，或者彻底停产，导致产能利用率降到IMS所记录过的最低值。这与一年前形成鲜明的对比，那时这些厂商的产能利用率高达80%。

2010年，随着需求量的剧增，大多数中国二级厂商迅速扩大他们的产能，并且在2011年继续飞速扩张产能。2010年的全球安装率为160%，而2011年的安装率却只有25%，是迅速扩张导致了产能严重过剩。因此，2012年的光伏组件厂商的总产能将接近市场实际需求量的两倍。

IMS光伏市场分析师杰西卡金认为：“从2010年到2011年初，对中国二级模块的需求，得益于一级模块和其他供应商的OEM协议。”现在中国的一级模块供应商和其他供应商的产能就可以满足市场需求，对于OEM产品的需求也已经下降了。高库存导致中国的二级供应商2011年每季度都在不断降低出货量，迫使供应商减产并导致产能利用率降至历史低点。

低产能利用率也影响了光伏组件的价格。为了清理高库存，中国的二级供应商积极降低产品价格与均价，2011年四季度的价格比2010年四季度的价格降低了37%。尽管中国二级供应商迅速降低价格，但根据IMS的《光伏组件价格的月度追踪》，由于当地的分销商纷纷加入欧洲市场的年末大潮，分销商的报价比12月的报价还高出16%。

IMS研究预测：由于降低了库存，大多数供应商停止了产能扩张并且还有一些供应商退出了市场，中国二级供应商的产能利用率将会在2012年二季度再次提高。

编译 Ne21.com Sunnie

The average production capacity utilization rate of Chinese Tier 2 crystalline PV module manufacturers fell to just 35% in Q4’11 according to the latest quarterly report from IMS Research and is forecast to fall even lower in Q1’12. As a result of high inventory levels and a weak outlook for demand in 2012, many suppliers closed down production lines, or suspended production entirely, resulting in utilization falling to the lowest level IMS Research has recorded. This is a sharp contrast to a year ago, when utilization rates of these suppliers hit 80% in Q4’10.

 

In 2010, most Chinese Tier 2 suppliers rapidly expanded their capacity as demand boomed, and these capacity expansions continued in 2011 with the expectation of another strong year. With global installations growing by ‘just’ 25% in 2011, compared to 160% in 2010, these rapid capacity expansions led to a severe over capacity. As a result, total PV module production capacity in 2012 will be nearly double the true market demand.

“During 2010 and early 2011, demand for Chinese Tier 2 modules had benefited from OEM supply agreements for Chinese Tier 1 and other suppliers,” commented Jessica Jin, PV Market Analyst at IMS Research. “As Chinese Tier 1 and other suppliers are now more able to meet demand for their products with their own production capacities, demand for OEM products has declined. Combined with high inventory levels, this has resulted in the shipments of Chinese Tier 2 suppliers declining each quarter in 2011, forcing suppliers to reduce production and resulting in record low utilization levels,” continued Jin.

Low utilization has also impacted on PV module prices. In an attempt to clear high inventory levels, Chinese Tier 2 suppliers have aggressively decreased their prices and the average price from Chinese Tier 2 suppliers in Q4’11 was 37% lower than in Q4’10. Despite the rapid decline of Chinese Tier 2 pricing, according to IMS Research’s Monthly PV Module Price Tracker, distributor pricing for these modules was 16% higher than supplier pricing in December, as local distributors capitalized on end-of-year rushes in major European markets.

IMS Research predicts that utilization of Chinese Tier 2 suppliers will begin to rise again in Q2’12, due to reduced inventory levels, most suppliers halting capacity expansions, and some suppliers exiting the market.